CEEDS Seminar: Decision making under uncertainty: Addressing trustworthiness of scientific evidence in an uncertain world - Shared screen with speaker view
Thanks Kate! Good article on PNS in COVID from Sussex Uni’s STEPS Centre:
Excellent talk. Interesting to contrast Montreal Protocol with Climate Change debate
Really great talk thank you! Just a thought in to your point on funders just now, do you think there is ever pressure to play down uncertainties to 'please' funders?
Sort of question: Are we too concentrated on the technocratic aspects of decisions and uncertainty? How should we include politics and values?
Do you have any insights in how or whether to express uncertainty in different ways for different decision makers e.g. from a land owner through to a government?
Do you think there is ever pressure to play down uncertainties to 'please' funders? I'm sure there is a tendency to downplay uncertainty to enhance your perceived chances of funding. However, the word perceived is key. That is our idea of what it takes to succeed, the funder might want just the opposite. In fact, there are increasingly explicit requirements during the grant application oprocess to address uncertainty. If we understand what types of uncertainty are most imprtant to the funder, we can do a more targeted job un the application.
Are we too concentrated on the technocratic aspects of decisions and uncertainty? How should we include politics and values? This relates to the kinds of environmental models we use to supply decision support. Getting out of our single output silos, analyses using environmental models should properly consider knock-on effects on a range of socio-economic outcomes. This integrated modelling approach is not simple, but it also allows a comparison of uncertainty levels across different outcome types. Decision makers might be less tolerant of uncertainty in one area than another - prompting us to concentrate our efforts on reducing uncertainty there.
When linking hazards to impacts have you considered how uncertainties may propagate through the different models/ensembles?
Do you have any insights in how or whether to express uncertainty in different ways for different decision makers e.g. from a land owner through to a government?Good question. Individuals tend to assess uncertainty in the context of their "standing" with respect to other individuals similar to themselves. Governments need to be concerned with the whole population. So individuals might be more motivated by statistics at a local level, while governments almost always have to maintain a national scale perspective.
Lauren’s paper soon to be presented at the ACM FAccT Conference (8th March): https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/150106/
and is it nature or nurture?Sorry Karsten, I'm not familiar enough with the neuroscience research. My brief exposure to it hasn't indicated that neural responses to uncertainty can be linked to genetics (or not).
Link to Lauren’s survey above
Thompson, Jill (CEH)
Where is the jam board?
Thanks so much for very interesting talks: Perhaps of interest: Interdisciplinarity and coproduction http://www.fractal.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Co-co-trans_March-2017.pdf and https://futureclimateafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/approaches-to-communicating-climatic-uncertainties-with-decision-makers_final.pdf and Harold, J., Lorenzoni, I., Shipley, T. F., & Coventry, K. R. (2019). Communication of IPCC visuals: IPCC authors’ views and assessments of visual complexity. Climatic Change, 158, 255-270 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02537-z
Cooper, Jonathan M.
thanks so much!
Cole, Steven J.